The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
A naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz should learn these lessons
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that a naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz must prioritize strategic design and regional ownership over sheer military might to ensure long-term stability. Drawing lessons from past anti-piracy efforts, the coalition should compartmentalize responsibilities into specialized task groups and implement a tiered escort system for high-value vessels. Crucially, the strategy must limit the use of force solely to deter attacks, rather than attempting to militarily defeat Iran. By adopting a structured, regionally-led approach, the coalition can restore confidence in shipping while managing the persistent threat of conflict.
中文摘要
查塔姆館的分析指出，在霍爾木茲海峽建立的海軍聯盟，為確保長期穩定，必須將戰略設計和區域主導權置於單純的軍事力量之上。該聯盟應從過去的反海盜行動中吸取教訓，將職責分區劃分為專業任務組，並為高價值船隻實施分級護航系統。至關重要的是，該戰略必須將武力使用限制於僅用於威懾攻擊，而非試圖在軍事上擊敗伊朗。透過採取結構化、區域主導的方針，該聯盟可以在管理持續的衝突威脅的同時，恢復航運的信心。
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