The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Norway can teach the UK about energy security – but the lesson is not more North Sea drilling
English Summary
The article argues that the UK's energy security challenge, exacerbated by global supply shocks, cannot be solved by increased fossil fuel extraction from the North Sea. Instead, the UK should model its strategy on Norway, which successfully decoupled its energy needs from fossil fuels by prioritizing electrification for heating and transport. This transition requires aggressive policy intervention—such as subsidies and infrastructure upgrades—to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles. By rapidly shifting away from oil and gas dependency, the UK can significantly reduce its exposure to volatile international energy markets, thereby improving both resilience and environmental outcomes.
中文摘要
本文論述英國的能源安全挑戰，因全球供應衝擊而加劇，無法僅透過增加北海的化石燃料開採來解決。相反地，英國應效仿挪威的模式，該國透過優先發展電氣化供暖和交通，成功將其能源需求與化石燃料脫鉤。此項轉型需要強力的政策干預——例如提供補貼和升級基礎設施——以加速熱泵和電動車的採用。透過迅速擺脫對石油和天然氣的依賴，英國能夠顯著降低其對波動國際能源市場的曝險，從而改善能源韌性與環境效益。
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