The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
Dollar dominance is surviving the Iran war – just about
English Summary
While US assets demonstrated relative resilience and maintained their safe-haven status during the Iran conflict, the Chatham House analysis cautions that this stability may be conjunctural rather than structural. The good performance of the dollar and US markets may simply reflect the US's current economic insulation, particularly its status as a major energy and weapons producer. Policymakers should note that this reliance on US strength is challenged by the remarkable stability of rival economies, such as China, whose financial calm suggests that global currency dominance is subject to multiple, non-US-centric factors.
中文摘要
儘管美國資產在伊朗衝突期間展現出相對韌性並維持了其避險資產地位，查塔姆學會的分析警告稱，這種穩定性可能只是偶然的，而非結構性的。美元和美國市場的良好表現，可能僅反映了美國當前的經濟隔離狀態，特別是其作為主要能源和武器生產國的地位。政策制定者應注意，這種對美國實力的依賴正受到競爭對手經濟體（如中國）顯著穩定的挑戰，而中國的金融平穩狀態暗示著全球貨幣主導地位，受制於多重、非美國中心因素。
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