The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Security and defence 2026
English Summary
Chatham House argues that the 2026 security environment is being transformed by overlapping geopolitical, military, and technological shocks that are testing established alliances and institutions. Its reasoning highlights NATO burden-sharing strains around 5% defence spending targets, strategic recalibration under a renewed Trump administration, China’s military modernization alongside Indo-Pacific flashpoints, and persistent interstate/proxy conflicts in the Middle East. It also emphasizes that climate-conflict dynamics, critical materials competition, and increasingly sophisticated cyber and espionage activity are blurring traditional warfighting domains. The policy implication is that governments and industry should prioritize cross-domain strategy, stronger public-private defence partnerships, and more efficient use of rising defence budgets to build resilience and credible deterrence.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所主張，2026年的安全環境正受到彼此重疊的地緣政治、軍事與科技衝擊所重塑，既有同盟與制度因此承受壓力。其論證指出，北約在將國防支出目標提高至GDP 5%上的分攤負擔緊張、川普政府再度執政下的戰略再校準、中國軍事現代化與印太熱點並行，以及中東持續的國家間與代理人衝突。報告亦強調，氣候與衝突的互動、關鍵材料競逐，以及日益精密的網路與間諜活動，正使傳統作戰領域界線日趨模糊。其政策意涵是，政府與產業應優先推動跨領域戰略、強化公私部門防務夥伴關係，並更有效運用持續上升的國防預算，以建立韌性與可信嚇阻。
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