The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
US-Israel war on Iran: What will Netanyahu do next?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis suggests that Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and Hezbollah is facing significant internal contradictions and political instability. Key evidence points to Prime Minister Netanyahu lacking political leverage and a stable coalition, while the national mood reflects strategic fatigue despite some opposition to a ceasefire. Consequently, the war's future trajectory and Israel's relationships with the US, Europe, and Gulf Arab states will be heavily dictated by domestic political dynamics and the upcoming electoral cycle, rather than solely by military necessity.
中文摘要
查塔姆館的分析指出，以色列針對伊朗和真乃ادي的多線戰場軍事行動，正面臨顯著的內在矛盾和政治不穩定。關鍵證據顯示，以色列總理納坦雅胡缺乏政治籌碼和穩定的執政聯盟，而國內民意反映出戰略疲勞，儘管部分民眾仍反對停火。因此，這場戰爭未來的發展軌跡，以及以色列與美國、歐洲和海灣阿拉伯國家的關係，將更多地受到國內政治動態和即將到來的選舉週期所決定，而非單純由軍事需要所主導。
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