Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Xi and Trump won’t discuss China’s growing nuclear arsenal
English Summary
The upcoming summit between Xi and Trump is unlikely to result in direct discussions or agreements regarding China's growing nuclear arsenal or US missile defense projects. Instead, the analysis suggests that strategic stability can be advanced by focusing on shared threat assessments in emerging domains, such as artificial intelligence and outer space. Progress can be made by establishing dialogue on AI risks in escalation and reaffirming commitments to keep AI out of nuclear launch decisions. This shift allows the superpowers to build confidence and manage strategic tensions without confronting immediate nuclear limits, thereby providing a pathway for dialogue.
中文摘要
預計的習川峰會不太可能就中國日益擴大的核武庫或美國的導彈防禦計畫進行直接討論或達成協議。相反地，分析指出，可透過關注人工智慧和外太空等新興領域的共同威脅評估來推進戰略穩定性。透過建立關於AI在升級風險的對話，並重申將AI排除在核發射決策之外的承諾，可以取得進展。這種轉變使超級大國能在不直接面對核武限制的情況下，建立互信並管理戰略緊張局勢，從而為對話提供了途徑。
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