Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Asia Pacific Programme hosts event on Japan and the Global South
English Summary
Chatham House argues that as the US turns inward and multilateral institutions weaken, the Global South is becoming a central arena of geopolitical and economic competition in which Japan is an increasingly important actor. Evidence came from a January 2026 expert event at Japan House London, where specialists assessed how Global South countries are reacting to great-power rivalry, including China’s expanding role, and compared Japanese, US, and Chinese approaches. The discussion suggests influence will depend less on rhetoric and more on how partner countries in the Global South perceive concrete differences in engagement models. For policy, Japan and like-minded states should design pragmatic, development-focused partnerships aligned with Global South priorities and recognize these countries as active shapers of the emerging global order.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所主張，隨著美國日益內向、多邊機構影響力走弱，全球南方正成為地緣政治與經濟競爭的核心場域，而日本在其中的重要性正持續上升。此判斷的依據之一，是2026年1月於倫敦日本之家舉行的專家活動；與會者評估了全球南方國家如何回應大國競爭（包括中國角色的擴張），並比較日本、美國與中國的對外互動路徑。討論指出，未來影響力的關鍵將較少取決於論述話語，而更取決於全球南方夥伴國如何感知各種參與模式在實質層面的差異。就政策而言，日本及其理念相近國家應設計務實、以發展為導向且符合全球南方優先事項的夥伴關係，並將這些國家視為塑造新興全球秩序的主動行動者。
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