The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Trump wants US energy dominance. Global markets may not agree
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Trump’s energy-dominance agenda is delivering visible short-term gains in US oil and LNG output, but global market dynamics make sustained political control over energy trajectories difficult. The article points to record US oil production, LNG export growth above 20%, coal-plant retention measures, and ambitious nuclear expansion goals, while also noting renewables still took most new US power capacity in 2025 and globally covered all demand growth as they surpassed coal in generation. It emphasizes that energy investment cycles run 5–10 years, so current outcomes reflect earlier decisions and require long policy continuity to lock in structural change. For strategy, the US may gain near-term geopolitical leverage over prices and supply chains, but allies’ mixed responses, persistent renewable cost competitiveness, and deeper US exposure to hydrocarbon regions limit long-term dominance and complicate policy tradeoffs.
中文摘要
研究所指出，川普的「能源主導」議程已在美國石油與液化天然氣（LNG）產量上帶來可見的短期成果，但全球市場動態使政治力量難以長期主導能源走向。文章提到美國石油產量創新高、LNG 出口成長逾 20%、延續燃煤電廠運轉的措施，以及雄心勃勃的核能擴張目標；同時也指出，2025 年美國新增電力裝置容量仍以再生能源為主，而在全球層面，再生能源在發電量超越煤炭後，已覆蓋全部新增需求。文中強調，能源投資週期長達 5 至 10 年，因此當前結果反映的是更早期的決策，且若要鞏固結構性變化，仍需政策長期且連續的支持。就戰略而言，美國或可在近期於價格與供應鏈方面獲得地緣政治槓桿，但盟友反應分歧、再生能源成本競爭力持續，以及美國對碳氫資源區域更深的曝險，皆限制其長期主導能力並使政策取捨更為複雜。
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