The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Lebanon–Israel talks must be given a chance
English Summary
The recent US-hosted talks between Lebanon and Israel are viewed as a crucial, albeit challenging, confidence-building measure that reasserts Lebanese state sovereignty. While the core hurdle remains Hezbollah's refusal to disarm, the talks are politically viable because neither Hezbollah nor Iran could prevent the meeting. For future negotiations to succeed, the analysis suggests that Israel must curb strikes on civilian infrastructure, while the Lebanese government must take concrete steps—including politically and financially isolating Hezbollah—to diminish its military and political power.
中文摘要
近期美國主辦的黎巴嫩與以色列會談，被視為一項關鍵但充滿挑戰的建立信任措施，旨在重申黎巴嫩的國家主權。儘管核心難題仍是真濟黨拒絕解除武裝，但由於真濟黨和伊朗均無法阻止此次會面，因此這些會談在政治上是可行的。分析指出，若要使未來談判取得成功，以色列必須遏制對平民基礎設施的打擊，同時黎巴嫩政府必須採取具體措施——包括在政治和財政上孤立真濟黨——以削弱其軍事和政治實力。
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