The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Lebanon–Israel talks must be given a chance
English Summary
The recent US-hosted talks between Lebanon and Israel are viewed as a crucial, albeit challenging, confidence-building measure that reasserts Lebanese state sovereignty. While the core hurdle remains Hezbollah's refusal to disarm, the talks are politically viable because neither Hezbollah nor Iran could prevent the meeting. For future negotiations to succeed, the analysis suggests that Israel must curb strikes on civilian infrastructure, while the Lebanese government must take concrete steps—including politically and financially isolating Hezbollah—to diminish its military and political power.
中文摘要
近期美國主辦的黎巴嫩與以色列會談，被視為一項關鍵但充滿挑戰的建立信任措施，旨在重申黎巴嫩的國家主權。儘管核心難題仍是真濟黨拒絕解除武裝，但由於真濟黨和伊朗均無法阻止此次會面，因此這些會談在政治上是可行的。分析指出，若要使未來談判取得成功，以色列必須遏制對平民基礎設施的打擊，同時黎巴嫩政府必須採取具體措施——包括在政治和財政上孤立真濟黨——以削弱其軍事和政治實力。
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