The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Gulf states
English Summary
The GCC monarchies are actively pursuing strategies to enhance their regional influence and economic resilience through national visions focused on diversification. While these efforts aim to boost geopolitical and soft power, the region faces significant structural headwinds. Key challenges include demographic stagnation, escalating regional instability, and the mounting impacts of climate change. Policymakers must also account for persistent internal debates concerning political freedoms and human rights when formulating regional strategies.
中文摘要
海灣合作委員會（GCC）的君主國正積極推動策略，透過著眼於多元化的國家願景，以提升其區域影響力與經濟韌性。儘管這些努力旨在提升地緣政治地位和軟實力，但該地區仍面臨顯著的結構性阻力。關鍵挑戰包括人口停滯、區域不穩定性加劇，以及氣候變遷日益增加的衝擊。政策制定者在制定區域戰略時，也必須考量到關於政治自由和人權的持續內部爭議。
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