The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Gulf states
English Summary
The GCC monarchies are actively pursuing strategies to enhance their regional influence and economic resilience through national visions focused on diversification. While these efforts aim to boost geopolitical and soft power, the region faces significant structural headwinds. Key challenges include demographic stagnation, escalating regional instability, and the mounting impacts of climate change. Policymakers must also account for persistent internal debates concerning political freedoms and human rights when formulating regional strategies.
中文摘要
海灣合作委員會（GCC）的君主國正積極推動策略，透過著眼於多元化的國家願景，以提升其區域影響力與經濟韌性。儘管這些努力旨在提升地緣政治地位和軟實力，但該地區仍面臨顯著的結構性阻力。關鍵挑戰包括人口停滯、區域不穩定性加劇，以及氣候變遷日益增加的衝擊。政策制定者在制定區域戰略時，也必須考量到關於政治自由和人權的持續內部爭議。
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