The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How to keep the Strait of Hormuz open in the long term
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis concludes that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open long-term requires a diplomatic strategy that makes the waterway's normal operation preferable to Iran's current assertion of control. Since Iran views its leverage as an existential asset, any solution must involve making the regime a direct beneficiary, potentially through structured sanctions relief or joint management ventures. Policy efforts should therefore focus on establishing multilateral, region-specific maritime security protocols—modeled after successful regional patrols—to coordinate law enforcement and build confidence among littoral states, thereby mitigating the risk of conflict.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析結論指出，若要長期維持霍爾木茲海峽的暢通，必須採取一項外交策略，使該水道的正常營運比伊朗當前主張的控制權更具吸引力。由於伊朗視其槓桿地位為生存資產，任何解決方案都必須讓該政權成為直接受益者，這可能透過結構化的制裁減免或聯合管理項目來實現。因此，政策努力應著重於建立多邊、區域性的海事安全協議——可參考成功的區域巡邏模式——以協調執法行動並增進沿岸國之間的互信，從而減輕衝突風險。
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