The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Haiti’s vicious circle: Funding is needed to end the violence. But the violence means the funding doesn’t come
English Summary
Haiti is trapped in a vicious circle where escalating gang violence and political infighting within the Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) deter the international funding and legitimacy required to restore order. With 90% of Port-au-Prince under criminal control and 8,100 deaths in 2025, the lack of a stable government counterpart severely undermines the UN’s Gang Suppression Force and the feasibility of democratic elections. Consequently, systemic security sector reform and economic recovery remain unachievable without a significant reversal in declining global development assistance.
中文摘要
海地陷入惡性循環：不斷升級的幫派暴力與過渡總統委員會（TPC）內部的政治內鬥，阻礙了恢復秩序所需的國際資助，並削弱了其合法性。目前太子港九成區域受犯罪集團控制，2025 年死亡人數已達 8,100 人。由於缺乏穩定的政府對接主體，嚴重損害了聯合國幫派鎮壓部隊的執行力以及舉行民主選舉的可行性。因此，若全球開發援助縮減的趨勢未能顯著逆轉，系統性的安全部門改革與經濟復甦將難以實現。
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