The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Trump’s treatment of US allies has weakened his negotiating position with Xi
English Summary
The article argues that the Trump administration's strained relationship with US allies has significantly diminished American negotiating leverage against China. This weakening is evidenced by allied nations (including Canada, the UK, and South Korea) forging independent, lucrative economic and strategic partnerships with Beijing. Consequently, China is capitalizing on the fractured US alliance structure, gaining greater economic connectivity and fewer multilateral constraints. To counter this, the US and its partners must urgently rebuild allied cohesion and develop a unified, collective bargaining strategy on critical issues like semiconductors and minerals, independent of Washington's unilateral actions.
中文摘要
本文論述，美國政府與盟友關係的緊張局勢，已顯著削弱了美國在對華談判中的籌碼。這種弱化體現在，盟國（包括加拿大、英國和韓國）正與北京建立獨立、有利可圖的經濟和戰略夥伴關係。因此，中國正利用美國聯盟結構的裂痕，獲得更大的經濟連通性，並面臨更少的多邊制約。為應對此趨勢，美國及其夥伴必須緊急重建盟友的凝聚力，並在半導體和礦物等關鍵議題上，制定出獨立於華盛頓單邊行動的、統一的集體談判策略。
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