Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Chatham House Debate: Is China the primary threat to global stability in the next decade?
English Summary
The Chatham House debate reveals that while China's rapid military modernization, technological ambitions, and efforts to reshape global norms pose a fundamental challenge to the international order, labeling it the sole primary threat is an oversimplification. Experts debated whether the challenge is purely geopolitical or if it is complicated by China's deep integration into the global economy and its role in addressing transnational issues like climate change. The consensus is that the challenge is multifaceted, stemming from complex great power competition rather than an inevitable path to conflict. Policymakers must therefore adopt a nuanced strategy that addresses multiple, interconnected risks shaping a fragmented international system.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的討論揭示，儘管中國快速的軍事現代化、技術雄心以及重塑全球規範的努力對國際秩序構成根本性挑戰，但將其標籤為唯一的首要威脅是一種過度簡化。專家們辯論該挑戰究竟是純粹的地緣政治問題，還是被中國深度融入全球經濟體以及其在應對氣候變遷等跨國性議題方面的角色所複雜化。共識指出，這一挑戰是多層面的，源於複雜的大國競爭，而非必然走向衝突的軌跡。因此，政策制定者必須採取一種細膩的策略，以應對塑造碎片化國際體系的多重、相互關聯的風險。
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