The analysis suggests that Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine is facing increasing internal and external pressures. Key evidence points to a tightening economic crisis, evidenced by widespread blackouts and a noticeable scaling back of traditional military displays. Furthermore, the discussion highlights Putin's increasing isolation and micromanagement, suggesting that the strategic initiative may be slipping out of Moscow's control. Policymakers should monitor these signs of internal strain, as they indicate potential vulnerabilities and a possible shift in Russia's military and geopolitical calculus.
Chatham House fellow gives evidence to UK House of Lords on legality of US actions in Venezuela
English Summary
Professor Marc Weller argues that US actions in Venezuela reflect a widening use-of-force rationale that risks breaching core international law principles. In evidence to the UK House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee, he evaluated the US legal justifications, questioned whether Monroe Doctrine-style claims can fit modern legal limits, and traced a broader shift in US legal positioning over the past decade. He warned that proliferating state justifications for force in pursuit of national interests weakens the credibility of the rules-based international order. Strategically, the testimony suggests policymakers should tighten legal scrutiny of intervention claims and strengthen multilateral support for non-use-of-force norms, including partnerships with developing countries defending international law.
中文摘要
Marc Weller教授主張，美國在委內瑞拉的行動反映出武力使用理由的擴張，恐有違反國際法核心原則之虞。在提交給英國上議院國際關係與國防委員會的證詞中，他評估了美方的法律正當化論述，質疑門羅主義式主張是否能符合當代法律限制，並梳理過去十年間美國法律立場更廣泛的轉變。他警告，國家為追求本國利益而不斷提出使用武力的正當化理由，將削弱以規則為基礎之國際秩序的公信力。從戰略層面看，該證詞指出政策制定者應加強對干預主張的法律審查，並強化對不使用武力規範的多邊支持，包括與捍衛國際法的發展中國家建立夥伴關係。
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