The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
The Hormuz inflation shock is only just beginning
English Summary
The analysis argues that the current global inflation surge is primarily driven by soaring energy prices, which are exacerbated by geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Key evidence points to the dramatic rise in energy costs (e.g., Brent crude near $100), establishing energy inflation as the dominant driver of broader CPI, overriding concerns about demand-side factors. Consequently, central banks face significant policy challenges, as this energy shock will trigger 'second-round effects' (cost-push inflation) that cannot be easily mitigated through traditional monetary policy rate hikes.
中文摘要
本分析指出，當前的全球通膨飆升主要由能源價格飆升所驅動，而能源價格的飆升又因中東的地緣政治不穩定，特別是霍爾木茲海峽周邊的局勢而加劇。主要證據顯示，能源成本的急劇上升（例如布倫特原油接近100美元）確立了能源通膨是廣泛消費者物價指數（CPI）的主導驅動因素，壓過了對需求端因素的擔憂。因此，中央銀行面臨重大的政策挑戰，因為此能源衝擊將引發「第二輪效應」（成本推升型通膨），而這類效應無法透過傳統的貨幣政策升息來輕易緩解。
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