The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Killing of development leader exposes insecurity in government-controlled Yemen
English Summary
The assassination of a development leader in government-controlled Yemen exposes the profound and systemic insecurity within the country, undermining stabilization efforts despite international backing. The article argues that this fragility stems from the government's inability to establish coherent command and control over security agencies, making security efforts reactive rather than preventative. This instability severely jeopardizes international aid and diplomatic missions, which are increasingly hesitant to operate in the region. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that top-down stabilization approaches, such as those backed by Saudi Arabia, will fail without achieving broader local legitimacy and political inclusion.
中文摘要
在政府控制的葉門，一位發展領袖遭刺殺的事件，暴露了該國內部深刻且系統性的不穩定，即使在國際支持下，也正在破壞穩定化努力。本文論點指出，這種脆弱性源於政府無法對安全機構建立連貫的指揮與控制能力，使得安全行動呈現出應對性而非預防性。這種不穩定性嚴重危及了國際援助和外交任務，使得相關機構越來越不願在該地區運作。最終，分析提出，自上而下的穩定化方法，例如沙烏地阿拉伯所支持的模式，若未能達成更廣泛的本地合法性與政治包容性，終將失敗。
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