The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Killing of development leader exposes insecurity in government-controlled Yemen
English Summary
The assassination of a development leader in government-controlled Yemen exposes the profound and systemic insecurity within the country, undermining stabilization efforts despite international backing. The article argues that this fragility stems from the government's inability to establish coherent command and control over security agencies, making security efforts reactive rather than preventative. This instability severely jeopardizes international aid and diplomatic missions, which are increasingly hesitant to operate in the region. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that top-down stabilization approaches, such as those backed by Saudi Arabia, will fail without achieving broader local legitimacy and political inclusion.
中文摘要
在政府控制的葉門，一位發展領袖遭刺殺的事件，暴露了該國內部深刻且系統性的不穩定，即使在國際支持下，也正在破壞穩定化努力。本文論點指出，這種脆弱性源於政府無法對安全機構建立連貫的指揮與控制能力，使得安全行動呈現出應對性而非預防性。這種不穩定性嚴重危及了國際援助和外交任務，使得相關機構越來越不願在該地區運作。最終，分析提出，自上而下的穩定化方法，例如沙烏地阿拉伯所支持的模式，若未能達成更廣泛的本地合法性與政治包容性，終將失敗。
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