Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Why a resurgent Japan is good for Asia
English Summary
Chatham House argues that a stronger Japan under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would be broadly beneficial for Asia by helping balance both Chinese dominance and excessive dependence on the United States. The piece reasons that many Asian governments value Japan’s predictable diplomacy, investment record, and growing security cooperation, especially as China’s military pressure rises and multilateral institutions weaken. It also notes major constraints: Takaichi’s tax-cut and spending agenda is fiscally difficult, constitutional military reform faces high political hurdles, and Tokyo is under simultaneous pressure from Beijing and Washington. Strategically, the article implies Japan should build domestic economic resilience while deepening ties with India, Southeast Asia, and other US allies (such as the UK and Australia) and stabilizing relations with China to avoid regional escalation.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）主張，若由高市早苗出任首相、且日本實力進一步增強，將整體有利於亞洲，因其可同時協助制衡中國主導地位與降低對美國的過度依賴。文章指出，在中國軍事施壓升高與多邊機構功能轉弱之際，許多亞洲政府重視日本可預測的外交路線、穩健的投資紀錄，以及持續擴大的安全合作。文中亦強調主要限制：高市的減稅與擴張性支出議程在財政上難以承受；憲政層面的軍事改革面臨高度政治門檻；東京同時承受來自北京與華府的雙重壓力。就戰略意涵而言，文章認為日本應在強化國內經濟韌性的同時，深化與印度、東南亞及其他美國盟友（如英國與澳洲）的連結，並穩定對中關係，以避免區域升高對抗。
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