Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Avoiding a new nuclear arms race
English Summary
Despite rising global tensions and skepticism regarding formal arms control, the paper argues that avoiding a new nuclear arms race remains achievable. It analyzes the stability of four key nuclear relationships—including the US-Russia, US-China, and the N5 group—to assess the current risk landscape. The research provides concrete recommendations for states to manage these complex dynamics and prevent costly escalation. Ultimately, the findings emphasize that proactive diplomatic engagement is crucial to maintaining strategic stability, especially in the context of the NPT Review Conference.
中文摘要
儘管全球緊張局勢升溫，且對正式的軍備控制機制產生懷疑，本文仍論證避免新一輪核軍備競賽是可行的。研究分析了包括美俄、美中以及N5集團在內的四個關鍵核關係的穩定性，以評估當前的風險格局。本研究為各國提供了具體的建議，以管理這些複雜的動態，並預防成本高昂的升級。最終，研究結果強調，主動的外交參與對於維持戰略穩定至關重要，尤其是在《不擴散條約》審查會議的背景下。
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