Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Bangladesh election reveals a transformed political landscape
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Bangladesh’s 12 February 2026 election is a pivotal test of democratic transition after the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina, but it is unfolding in a volatile, reconfigured political arena. The report’s reasoning centers on the ban of the Awami League, BNP’s leadership shift under Tarique Rahman, and the unexpected 11-party Jamaat–NCP alliance, alongside polling that shows a tight BNP–Jamaat contest and a decisive youth electorate. It also highlights mounting instability, including killings of activists, intra-opposition tensions, and a major information-war environment marked by bots, deepfakes, decontextualized religious clips, and cross-border disinformation allegations. The policy implication is that domestic and international actors should prioritize election security, violence prevention, and information-integrity measures while supporting inclusive political competition so institutional legitimacy can survive the transition.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）指出，孟加拉國於2026年2月12日舉行的選舉，是在2024年謝赫・哈西娜（Sheikh Hasina）下台後檢驗民主轉型成敗的關鍵考驗；然而，選舉正於一個動盪且已重組的政治競爭場域中展開。報告的論證重點包括：人民聯盟（Awami League）遭禁、孟加拉民族主義黨（BNP）在塔里克・拉赫曼（Tarique Rahman）主導下的領導轉向，以及出乎意料的由11個政黨組成之伊斯蘭大會黨—NCP聯盟；同時，民調顯示BNP與伊斯蘭大會黨（Jamaat）選情緊繃，且青年選民具有決定性影響力。報告亦強調不穩定性升高，包括活動人士遭殺害、反對陣營內部緊張，以及以機器人帳號、深度偽造、去脈絡化宗教片段與跨境假訊息指控為特徵的大規模資訊戰環境。其政策意涵在於，國內與國際行動者應優先投入選舉安全、暴力預防與資訊完整性措施，並支持包容性的政治競爭，以確保制度正當性得以在轉型過程中維繫。
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