Bangladesh election reveals a transformed political landscape
Chatham House | 2026-02-22 | diplomacy
Topics: Cybersecurity, Indo-Pacific
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English Summary
Chatham House argues that Bangladesh’s 12 February 2026 election is a pivotal test of democratic transition after the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina, but it is unfolding in a volatile, reconfigured political arena. The report’s reasoning centers on the ban of the Awami League, BNP’s leadership shift under Tarique Rahman, and the unexpected 11-party Jamaat–NCP alliance, alongside polling that shows a tight BNP–Jamaat contest and a decisive youth electorate. It also highlights mounting instability, including killings of activists, intra-opposition tensions, and a major information-war environment marked by bots, deepfakes, decontextualized religious clips, and cross-border disinformation allegations. The policy implication is that domestic and international actors should prioritize election security, violence prevention, and information-integrity measures while supporting inclusive political competition so institutional legitimacy can survive the transition.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）指出，孟加拉國於2026年2月12日舉行的選舉，是在2024年謝赫・哈西娜（Sheikh Hasina）下台後檢驗民主轉型成敗的關鍵考驗；然而，選舉正於一個動盪且已重組的政治競爭場域中展開。報告的論證重點包括：人民聯盟（Awami League）遭禁、孟加拉民族主義黨（BNP）在塔里克・拉赫曼（Tarique Rahman）主導下的領導轉向，以及出乎意料的由11個政黨組成之伊斯蘭大會黨—NCP聯盟；同時，民調顯示BNP與伊斯蘭大會黨（Jamaat）選情緊繃，且青年選民具有決定性影響力。報告亦強調不穩定性升高，包括活動人士遭殺害、反對陣營內部緊張，以及以機器人帳號、深度偽造、去脈絡化宗教片段與跨境假訊息指控為特徵的大規模資訊戰環境。其政策意涵在於，國內與國際行動者應優先投入選舉安全、暴力預防與資訊完整性措施，並支持包容性的政治競爭，以確保制度正當性得以在轉型過程中維繫。
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