Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
The risks of Trump’s peace plan: Two Gazas and an annexed West Bank
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Trump’s Gaza peace framework could entrench Palestinian fragmentation rather than resolve the conflict, resulting in a depoliticized enclave and a permanently weakened statehood project. It contends that UNSCR 2803 places decision-making in externally controlled bodies with minimal Palestinian authority, while treating statehood as conditional and deferring meaningful political integration of Gaza and the West Bank until at least December 31, 2027. The analysis further cites the Kushner-led redevelopment approach and reconstruction sequencing in Israeli-controlled areas as likely to create “two Gazas,” alongside accelerating de facto West Bank annexation through Israeli policy measures. The policy implication is that Arab and European governments should not back implementation unconditionally, but instead push for binding safeguards linking Gaza and the West Bank, rights-based UN parameters, and credible consequences for annexation.
中文摘要
研究所認為，川普的加薩和平框架可能鞏固巴勒斯坦的碎片化，而非化解衝突，最終形成去政治化的飛地，並使建國計畫長期弱化。其主張，聯合國安理會第2803號決議（UNSCR 2803）把決策權置於受外部控制的機構之中，巴勒斯坦當局權限極其有限；同時將建國視為附帶條件的目標，並把加薩與約旦河西岸的實質政治整合延後至至少2027年12月31日。該分析進一步指出，由庫許納主導的重建開發思路，以及在以色列控制區域內安排的重建先後次序，可能導致「兩個加薩」的局面；此外，以色列的政策措施也在加速約旦河西岸事實上的併吞。其政策意涵是：阿拉伯與歐洲各國政府不應無條件支持該框架的落實，而應推動具約束力的保障機制，把加薩與西岸連結起來，納入以權利為基礎的聯合國參數，並對併吞行為設定可信且可執行的後果。
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