The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
The risks of Trump’s peace plan: Two Gazas and an annexed West Bank
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Trump’s Gaza peace framework could entrench Palestinian fragmentation rather than resolve the conflict, resulting in a depoliticized enclave and a permanently weakened statehood project. It contends that UNSCR 2803 places decision-making in externally controlled bodies with minimal Palestinian authority, while treating statehood as conditional and deferring meaningful political integration of Gaza and the West Bank until at least December 31, 2027. The analysis further cites the Kushner-led redevelopment approach and reconstruction sequencing in Israeli-controlled areas as likely to create “two Gazas,” alongside accelerating de facto West Bank annexation through Israeli policy measures. The policy implication is that Arab and European governments should not back implementation unconditionally, but instead push for binding safeguards linking Gaza and the West Bank, rights-based UN parameters, and credible consequences for annexation.
中文摘要
研究所認為，川普的加薩和平框架可能鞏固巴勒斯坦的碎片化，而非化解衝突，最終形成去政治化的飛地，並使建國計畫長期弱化。其主張，聯合國安理會第2803號決議（UNSCR 2803）把決策權置於受外部控制的機構之中，巴勒斯坦當局權限極其有限；同時將建國視為附帶條件的目標，並把加薩與約旦河西岸的實質政治整合延後至至少2027年12月31日。該分析進一步指出，由庫許納主導的重建開發思路，以及在以色列控制區域內安排的重建先後次序，可能導致「兩個加薩」的局面；此外，以色列的政策措施也在加速約旦河西岸事實上的併吞。其政策意涵是：阿拉伯與歐洲各國政府不應無條件支持該框架的落實，而應推動具約束力的保障機制，把加薩與西岸連結起來，納入以權利為基礎的聯合國參數，並對併吞行為設定可信且可執行的後果。
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