The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Saudi–UAE tensions: Yemen and regional implications
English Summary
The Chatham House event argues that late-2025 Saudi-UAE friction over Yemen reflects a deeper strategic split, not just a tactical disagreement in one conflict. The core evidence is their opposing local alignments: the UAE’s backing of the Southern Transitional Council and southern autonomy versus Saudi support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government and territorial unity. Saudi efforts to freeze front lines and push a political settlement, alongside the UAE’s announced full withdrawal, exposed incompatible views of Yemen’s future security and governance architecture. Strategically, this suggests Gulf coordination will be less automatic, and policymakers should treat Yemen as a test case for wider Riyadh-Abu Dhabi divergence in regional influence, security priorities, and economic statecraft.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所（Chatham House）的一場活動指出，2025年末沙烏地阿拉伯與阿拉伯聯合大公國在葉門問題上的摩擦，反映的是更深層的戰略分歧，而不僅是單一衝突中的戰術歧見。核心證據在於雙方相對立的在地結盟：阿聯酋支持南方過渡委員會與南部自治，沙烏地則支持葉門獲國際承認的政府與領土統一。沙烏地試圖凍結前線並推動政治解決方案，加上阿聯酋宣布全面撤軍，進一步暴露雙方對葉門未來安全與治理架構的看法互不相容。從戰略層面看，這意味著海灣國家之間的協調將不再是自動形成；政策制定者應將葉門視為檢驗利雅德—阿布達比在區域影響力、安全優先序與經濟治國手段上更廣泛分歧的試金石。
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