The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
From Quiet Competition to Open Rivalry: Saudi–UAE Relations
English Summary
INSS argues that Saudi–UAE ties have shifted from tactical coordination to a structural strategic rivalry over regional leadership, influence, and economic primacy. It cites widening divergence across conflict theaters (Yemen, Sudan, and Qatar diplomacy), competing regional alignments, and escalating economic competition tied to Saudi Vision 2030 and efforts to challenge Dubai’s hub status. The analysis contends this is not a temporary leadership dispute but part of a broader regional reordering, with implications for Gulf cohesion, Red Sea dynamics, and external actors’ planning assumptions. For policymakers, the key takeaway is to avoid treating a Saudi–Emirati bloc as fixed, hedge against further fragmentation, and for Israel in particular avoid appearing to choose sides while preserving channels to both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
中文摘要
INSS主張，沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋的關係已由戰術性協調，轉變為圍繞區域領導權、影響力與經濟主導地位的結構性戰略競爭。該報告指出，雙方在多個衝突場域（葉門、蘇丹與卡達外交）上的分歧持續擴大，區域結盟路徑相互競逐，且隨著沙烏地「2030願景」推進及其挑戰杜拜樞紐地位的作為，經濟競爭亦加劇。分析認為，這並非暫時性的領導人爭端，而是更廣泛區域重組的一部分，將影響海灣內部凝聚力、紅海地緣動態，以及外部行為者的政策規劃假設。對決策者而言，關鍵啟示是：不應將「沙烏地—阿聯酋集團」視為固定不變，應就進一步碎片化預作避險；對以色列而言，尤應避免被視為選邊站，同時維持與利雅德及阿布達比的溝通管道。
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