The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Promise and Peril of U.S.-China Summitry
English Summary
The article argues that the U.S.-China relationship is defined by a long-term, multifaceted strategic competition, which China views through a historical lens of achieving self-sufficiency and resisting foreign leverage. Beijing's approach is characterized by deep strategic planning, leading it to resist fundamental structural economic changes despite seeking temporary, mutually advantageous agreements. For policy, the analysis warns that the greatest risk lies not in disagreement, but in the misunderstanding or ambiguous interpretation of agreements following high-level summits. Therefore, managing the relationship requires both powers to clearly articulate their core, long-term objectives to prevent temporary stabilization from obscuring deep strategic divergence.
中文摘要
本文論述美中關係的定義是一種長期且多層面的戰略競爭。中國看待這一關係的視角，則透過實現自給自足和抵制外部影響力的歷史視角來理解。北京的策略特點是進行深層次的戰略規劃，因此，即使尋求短期、互利的協議，它仍會抵抗根本性的結構性經濟變革。從政策層面分析來看，本文警告最大的風險並非分歧本身，而是高層峰會後對協議的誤解或模糊詮釋。因此，管理雙邊關係要求兩方必須清晰闡明其核心的長期目標，以防止短期的穩定狀態掩蓋深層次的戰略分歧。
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