The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
What Silicon Valley Gets Wrong About National Security
English Summary
The article argues that the private technology sector often misunderstands the complex, geopolitical drivers of national security spending. It uses the historical example of the 1993 'Last Supper' to demonstrate that the end of the Cold War immediately triggered budget cuts and consolidation pressures on the defense industry. This suggests that national security planning cannot be based solely on technological advancement or market demand. Instead, policy must account for major geopolitical shifts, which fundamentally dictate defense funding and industrial structure, often overriding private sector assumptions.
中文摘要
本文論述私營科技部門往往誤解國家安全支出背後複雜的地緣政治驅動因素。文章援引1993年「最後的晚餐」這一歷史案例，證明冷戰結束立即引發了國防產業的預算削減和整合壓力。這表明，國家安全規劃不能僅基於技術進步或市場需求。相反，政策制定必須考量重大的地緣政治轉變，因為這些轉變從根本上決定了國防資金和產業結構，往往凌駕於私營部門的假設之上。
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