The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Shared Prosperity in a Fractured World: A New Economics for the Middle Class, the Global Poor, and Our Climate
English Summary
The article argues for a "new progressive agenda" that addresses climate change, democratic decline, and poverty by focusing on localized and regional policy experimentation rather than relying on fraught global agreements. Economically, it posits that automation and AI require governments to stabilize the middle class and boost productivity by transitioning workers from manufacturing and agriculture into the service sector. This structural shift is necessary because traditional industrial growth models are unsustainable due to carbon intensity and automation risks. Therefore, policy must prioritize targeted training and investment in service-sector jobs to ensure shared prosperity and strengthen democratic stability.
中文摘要
本文主張推動「新進步議程」，主張應透過在地化和區域性的政策實驗來應對氣候變遷、民主衰退和貧困問題，而非依賴充滿爭議的全球性協定。在經濟層面，文章提出，由於自動化和人工智慧的發展，政府必須穩定中產階級，並透過將勞工從製造業和農業轉向服務業來提升生產力。這種結構性轉型是必要的，因為傳統的工業增長模式因碳強度和自動化風險而難以持續。因此，政策必須優先考慮針對性的培訓和服務業職位投資，以確保共同繁榮並強化民主穩定性。
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