The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Beyond Taiwan, a ‘Decent Peace’ at the Trump-Xi Summit
English Summary
The Trump-Xi summit achieved a delicate détente, establishing a baseline of 'decent peace' that prioritizes stability and commercial cooperation over major geopolitical breakthroughs. Key evidence includes agreements on energy, trade (e.g., Boeing aircraft, Nvidia chips), and regional issues like the Strait of Hormuz, while China repeatedly emphasized Taiwan as the most critical issue for future stability. Strategically, the relationship is now defined by managed competition, with the pending $14 billion arms package to Taiwan serving as the most consequential test of this new, fragile truce. The outcome of this arms deal, and whether it is used as a bargaining chip, will determine the limits of the current détente.
中文摘要
川普與習近平的峰會達成了一種微妙的緩和（détente），確立了以穩定和商業合作為優先考量，而非追求重大地緣政治突破的「尚可和平」基礎。關鍵證據包括在能源、貿易（例如波音飛機、輝達晶片）以及霍爾木茲海峽等區域議題上的協議；同時，中國方面持續強調台灣是未來穩定的最關鍵議題。從戰略角度來看，雙方關係現已定義為「可控競爭」，而即將到手的價值140億美元的台灣軍備方案，成為檢驗這種新、脆弱休戰的最重要試金石。這筆軍備交易的結果，以及它是否會被用作談判籌碼，將決定當前緩和局勢的極限。
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