The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Deep Seek V 4 Signals a New Phase in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry
English Summary
The release of DeepSeek V4 signals China's commitment to the AI race, but the analysis finds that the model does not close the performance gap with U.S. frontier models. The true competitive threat lies not in raw performance, but in the model's open-source nature and low cost, which drive the 'adoption race' in the Global South. Furthermore, DeepSeek's capabilities are partially derived from illicit means, including smuggled U.S. chips and industrial-scale intellectual property theft via distillation attacks. To maintain its lead, the U.S. must shift its strategy from merely restricting hardware to aggressively countering adversarial IP theft through sanctions and multilateral pressure.
中文摘要
DeepSeek V4的發布標誌著中國參與人工智慧競賽的決心，但分析指出，該模型並未能縮小與美國前沿模型之間的性能差距。真正的競爭威脅不在於原始性能，而在於其開源特性和低成本，這推動了全球南方地區的「採用競賽」。此外，DeepSeek的能力部分源於非法手段，包括走私的美國晶片和透過蒸餾攻擊進行的工業規模知識產權盜竊。為維持領先地位，美國必須將戰略從單純限制硬體，轉向透過制裁和多邊壓力，積極應對敵對的知識產權盜竊。
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