The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
US policy in a changing nuclear landscape
English Summary
The United States is entering an increasingly dangerous nuclear era as Russia and China simultaneously modernize and expand their arsenals, presenting the unprecedented challenge of facing two nuclear peers. The collapse of the New START treaty has removed critical constraints on strategic forces, while regional instabilities in Iran and the Korean Peninsula further exacerbate the threat environment. These developments are placing immense strain on U.S. extended deterrence commitments and raising risks of allied nuclear proliferation. Consequently, policymakers must urgently reassess foundational assumptions regarding nuclear posture, modernization, and the integration of emerging defense technologies like the "Golden Dome" missile system.
中文摘要
美國正邁入一個日益危險的核時代，俄羅斯與中國同時對其核武庫進行現代化與擴張，使美國面臨同時應對兩個等量齊觀核對手的空前挑戰。《新削減戰略武器條約》（New START）的瓦解移除了對戰略力量的關鍵限制，而伊朗與朝鮮半島的區域不穩定則進一步惡化了威脅環境。這些發展正對美國的延伸威懾承諾施加巨大壓力，並推高了盟國核擴散的風險。因此，政策制定者必須緊急重新評估核態勢、現代化以及如「金穹」（Golden Dome）飛彈系統等新興防禦技術整合的基本假設。
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