ThinkTankWeekly

Even in ‘business-friendly’ states, federal policy shocks are hurting Latino-owned firms

Brookings | 2026-02-22 | society

Topics: Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

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English Summary

Federal policy volatility—including intensified immigration enforcement, tariff uncertainty, and the retrenchment of public contracting—is disproportionately destabilizing Latino-owned businesses in traditionally "business-friendly" states like Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. These firms serve as economic bellwethers because they are concentrated in labor-intensive sectors like construction and services, where policy shocks transmit fastest and financial buffers are thinnest. The report warns that this environment creates a "K-shaped" business landscape where small, place-based firms face quiet attrition while larger, insulated corporations consolidate. Consequently, long-term economic competitiveness in these high-growth regions will depend more on ensuring predictable policy stability than on traditional tax-incentive models.

中文摘要

聯邦政策的波動性——包括加強移民執法、關稅不確定性以及公共合約縮減——正不成比例地動搖德州、佛羅里達州和北卡羅來納州等傳統「親商」州的拉丁裔企業。這些企業是經濟風向標,因為它們集中在建築和服務等勞力密集型產業,這些產業的政策衝擊傳導最快,且財務緩衝最為薄弱。報告警告,這種環境正營造出一種「K型」商業格局,小型在地企業面臨悄然萎縮,而規模較大、受保護程度較高的企業則在進行整合。因此,這些高成長地區的長期經濟競爭力,將更多地取決於確保政策的穩定與可預測性,而非傳統的稅收激勵模式。

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