The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
What are trimmed mean and median inflation rates? And why does Kevin Warsh prefer them?
English Summary
The Brookings article analyzes alternative inflation metrics, such as the trimmed mean and median, which proponents argue are superior to traditional core indices because they statistically filter out extreme price outliers (noise). These methods remove the most volatile price changes from the distribution, aiming to provide a cleaner, more accurate measure of underlying inflation and economic slack. While these metrics are useful for identifying long-term trends, the analysis cautions that they can systematically understate inflation during periods of large, one-time shocks (e.g., tariffs or energy crises). Policymakers must be aware that relying solely on these filtered metrics could lead to misjudgments of the true inflationary trajectory, potentially impacting monetary policy decisions.
中文摘要
該布魯金斯學會的文章分析了替代性通貨膨脹指標，例如剔除平均值和中位數。支持者認為這些指標優於傳統核心指數，因為它們能在統計學上過濾掉極端的價格異常值（即「雜訊」）。這些方法旨在移除價格分佈中最具波動性的變動，從而提供衡量潛在通貨膨脹和經濟鬆弛度更清晰、更準確的指標。雖然這些指標有助於識別長期趨勢，但該分析警告指出，在經歷大型、一次性衝擊（例如關稅或能源危機）的時期，它們可能會系統性地低估通貨膨脹。政策制定者必須意識到，單獨依賴這些經過過濾的指標可能會導致對真實通貨膨脹軌跡的誤判，進而影響貨幣政策的決策。
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