The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How Trump and Xi Will Approach the Beijing Summit
English Summary
The article argues that the upcoming Beijing summit will be characterized by an asymmetry: President Trump's short-term political need for visible deals versus Xi Jinping's long-term strategic goal of maintaining stability and resisting compromise. Consequently, the summit is unlikely to resolve deep structural issues like China's overcapacity or the trade imbalance, instead producing only carefully choreographed, limited agreements and a temporary stabilization of the atmosphere. Policymakers should view the apparent symmetry of the meeting as a warning, indicating that underlying geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions remain unresolved, despite the superficial appearance of progress.
中文摘要
本文論點指出，即將舉行的北京峰會將呈現出不對稱性：川普總統短期內對可見交易成果的政治需求，與習近平主席長期維護穩定和抵制妥協的戰略目標之間存在差異。因此，本次峰會不太可能解決中國過剩產能或貿易失衡等深層結構性問題，而只會產生精心策劃的、有限的協議，並暫時穩定氣氛。政策制定者應將會議表面上的對稱性視為一個警訊，表明儘管表面上看似取得進展，但潛在的地緣政治和宏觀經濟緊張局勢仍未得到根本解決。
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