The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Will China Overplay Its Hand?
English Summary
The article analyzes the geopolitical risk inherent in the U.S.-China relationship, questioning whether Beijing is poised to overplay its strategic hand. The immediate context is the planned March 2026 summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping, following a fragile economic truce reached in October 2025. While temporary agreements have eased immediate tensions, the core strategic challenge remains managing China's long-term ambitions and potential for escalation. Policymakers must prepare for continued volatility, balancing the necessity of high-level dialogue with the risk of rapid strategic reversals.
中文摘要
本文分析了美中關係所內含的地緣政治風險，並質疑北京是否會過度激化其戰略手腕。當前的背景是，在2025年10月達成暫時的經濟休戰後，預計於2026年3月舉行川普總統與習近平主席的峰會。儘管臨時協議緩解了即時的緊張局勢，但核心的戰略挑戰仍是如何管理中國的長期野心及其潛在的升級風險。政策制定者必須為持續的波動做好準備，在維持高層對話的必要性與應對快速戰略逆轉的風險之間取得平衡。
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