The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
What Drove Down America’s Fentanyl Deaths?
English Summary
The significant decline in American fentanyl overdose deaths is primarily attributed to a supply shock, rather than increased demand-side interventions like treatment or naloxone availability. Key evidence shows that falling seizure rates and purity levels of fentanyl in both the U.S. and Canada correlate directly with the drop in fatalities. This suggests that the critical constraint is the precursor chemical supply, pointing to increased regulatory control by Chinese authorities. Policymakers must therefore shift focus to the global chemical supply chain, making fentanyl control a critical, enduring feature of US-China diplomatic and counternarcotics negotiations.
中文摘要
美國芬太尼過量死亡人數的顯著下降，主要歸因於供應衝擊，而非治療或奈洛酮（naloxone）可用性等需求端干預措施。關鍵證據顯示，美國和加拿大芬太尼的沒收率和純度下降，與死亡人數的下降呈直接關聯。這表明關鍵限制因素在於前體化學品的供應，並指向中國當局加強的監管控制。因此，政策制定者必須將重點轉移至全球化學品供應鏈，使芬太尼的管控成為美中外交和反毒談判中一個關鍵且持久的議題。
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