The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation, and the Fate of Nations
English Summary
The article argues that sustained technological progress requires a competitive, decentralized market system, contrasting this with top-down bureaucratic models best suited for scaling existing technologies. Historical examples show that nations like Great Britain and the US thrived through decentralized competition, while centralized systems (like late 19th-century Prussia) excelled at consolidation. Stagnation occurs when a society's political structure fails to adapt to new technological realities. The analysis warns that both China, due to centralized power, and the United States, due to stifled competition, face significant challenges in maintaining future growth.
中文摘要
本文主張，持續的技術進步需要一個具競爭性、分散式的市場體系，這與最適合擴展現有技術的自上而下的官僚模式形成對比。歷史例證顯示，英國和美國等國家透過分散式競爭蓬勃發展，而中央集權的體系（如19世紀末的普魯士）則擅長整合與鞏固。當一個社會的政治結構無法適應新的技術現實時，便會導致停滯。本分析警告指出，無論是中國（因中央集權）還是美國（因競爭受限），在維持未來增長方面都面臨著重大的挑戰。
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