The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Paris to Kyoto: The History of UN Climate Agreements
English Summary
The article argues that while international climate agreements like the Paris Accord have fostered diplomacy, current national commitments remain insufficient to prevent dangerous global warming, a situation exacerbated by the United States' recent withdrawal from UN climate bodies. Evidence indicates that global temperatures already breached the 1.5°C threshold in 2024, and the U.S. departure from the UNFCCC significantly reduces the organization's funding while signaling a domestic return to fossil fuel prioritization. Consequently, the lack of U.S. participation is expected to delay the global transition to net-zero, forcing a strategic shift toward alternative frameworks like universal carbon pricing and minilateral cooperation through the G20.
中文摘要
本文指出，雖然《巴黎協定》等國際氣候協議促進了外交合作，但目前各國的承諾仍不足以防止危險的全球暖化，而美國近期退出聯合國氣候機構使情況進一步惡化。證據顯示，2024年全球氣溫已突破 1.5°C 的門檻；美國退出《聯合國氣候變化綱要公約》（UNFCCC）不僅大幅削減了該組織的經費，也標誌著其國內政策重新轉向優先發展化石燃料。因此，美國的缺席預計將推遲全球淨零轉型的進程，迫使策略轉向替代框架，例如全球碳定價以及透過 G20 進行的小多邊合作。
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