The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Lessons of the Fall of Saigon
English Summary
The article argues that the fall of Saigon taught the U.S. that geopolitical history is non-linear and that policymakers should resist the temptation of defeatism or over-predicting the future. Key evidence cited is the historical pattern that following the perceived failure of Vietnam, the U.S. emerged as a dominant power, and rival powers (China, USSR) made subsequent strategic errors. The primary policy implication is a warning against assuming current geopolitical trends are preordained; instead, the U.S. must remain flexible and capitalize on unpredictable opportunities and challenges, rather than succumbing to pessimism.
中文摘要
本文論述指出，西貢陷落的經驗教訓美國地緣政治歷史是非線性的，政策制定者應抵制宿命論或過度預測未來的誘惑。文章引用的關鍵證據是，在美國經歷了被認為的越南失敗後，美國反而崛起為主導強權，而競爭對手（如中國和蘇聯）隨後犯下了戰略失誤。其主要的政策啟示是，不應假設當前的地緣政治趨勢是命中注定的；相反，美國必須保持高度的靈活性，應利用不可預測的機遇與挑戰，而非屈服於悲觀主義。
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