The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Japan’s National Security Reckoning
English Summary
The article examines the historical security architecture built around Japan, which has relied on the US-led post-WWII international system for stability and global trade. While this system has successfully maintained norms against outright conquest, the core finding is that global security leaders recognize this established framework is not guaranteed to endure. This suggests that Japan and its allies must prepare for potential shifts or breakdowns in the long-standing security assurances provided by the United States. Consequently, Japan's national security strategy must account for a future where the current multilateral guarantees are unstable.
中文摘要
本文檢視了圍繞日本建立的歷史安全架構，該架構一直依賴美國主導的戰後國際體系來維持穩定和全球貿易。儘管該體系成功地維持了防止赤裸裸征服的規範，但核心發現是，全球安全領導人普遍認為，這一既有的框架無法保證持續。這暗示著日本及其盟友必須為美國提供的長期安全保障可能出現的轉變或崩潰做好準備。因此，日本的國家安全戰略必須考慮到一個當前多邊保障體系可能不穩定的未來。
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