The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
China and America Are Courting Nuclear Catastrophe
English Summary
The article argues that the rapidly expanding nuclear capabilities of China, coupled with its refusal to engage in arms control talks, are replacing the bipolar nuclear order with a destabilizing tripolar dynamic. Beijing views a strong deterrent as stabilizing, while the U.S. responds by strengthening its own forces and avoiding treaties that exclude China. This escalating arms race, further complicated by Russia's involvement, is creating an anarchic international security environment. To de-escalate, both powers must move beyond rhetoric and increase concrete transparency, particularly regarding short-range nuclear capabilities, to defuse acute regional risks.
中文摘要
本文論述，中國核能力快速擴張，加上其拒絕參與軍控談判，正在取代兩極核秩序，轉變為一個不穩定的三極動態。北京認為強大的嚇阻能力具有穩定作用，而美國則回應透過強化自身軍力，並避免簽署排除中國的條約。這場不斷升級的軍備競賽，更因俄羅斯捲入而變得複雜，正在營造一個無政府的國際安全環境。為實現降級，兩方必須超越空談，增加具體的透明度，特別是關於短程核能力方面，以化解當前的區域風險。
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