The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Asia’s Aging Security: How Demographic Change Affects America’s Allies and Adversaries
English Summary
The publication challenges the concept of 'geriatric peace,' arguing instead for an 'aging security dilemma' in East Asia. As aging populations cause states to fear military weakness, they compensate by rapidly developing advanced weapons and automation, thereby sustaining or intensifying their security posture. This arms race, exemplified by Japan's focus on advanced platforms, increases regional concern and creates a dangerous cocktail of tensions, especially when combined with cyber threats and shifting alliances. Policymakers must analyze how different Asian states adapt their military doctrines and procurement choices to anticipate and mitigate escalating regional instability.
中文摘要
該出版物挑戰了「老年和平」（geriatric peace）的概念，反而主張東亞存在著「人口老化安全困境」（aging security dilemma）。隨著人口老化，各國國家會恐懼軍事上的弱勢，因此透過快速發展先進武器和自動化技術來進行補償，從而維持甚至加劇其安全態勢。這場軍備競賽，以日本對先進平台的關注為例，增加了區域性的擔憂，並在結合網路威脅和不斷變化的聯盟關係時，形成了一種危險的緊張局勢。政策制定者必須分析不同亞洲國家如何調整其軍事學說和採購選擇，以預測並緩解日益升級的區域不穩定性。
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