The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How Trump’s Tariffs Could Survive the Supreme Court Ruling
English Summary
The article argues that although the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s broad IEEPA-based tariffs as unconstitutional, the administration can still sustain much of its trade agenda through other delegated statutes. It explains that Section 122 can quickly reimpose a temporary across-the-board tariff (up to 15% for 150 days), while Sections 232 and 301 provide more durable sectoral or country-specific tariffs with few effective political constraints once in place; Section 338 is another possible but legally untested option. The core reasoning is that no single authority fully replicates IEEPA’s sweep, but together they can recreate tariffs in a legally defensible patchwork, albeit with procedural limits, sunset risks, and likely litigation. Strategically, policymakers should expect continued tariff leverage in negotiations but greater legal and political friction, including pressure for congressional guardrails and higher concern over consumer and small-business costs.
中文摘要
該文主張，儘管最高法院已裁定川普依據《國際緊急經濟權力法》（IEEPA）實施的廣泛關稅違憲，政府仍可透過其他授權法規維持其大部分貿易議程。文中指出，第122條可迅速重新施加臨時性的全面關稅（最高15%，為期150天）；而第232條與第301條則可提供更持久的產業別或國別關稅，且一旦實施，實際政治約束相對有限；第338條亦可能成為選項，但其法律適用尚未經充分檢驗。其核心論證是：雖無任何單一授權可完整複製IEEPA的涵蓋範圍，但多項工具合併運作，仍可形成在法律上可辯護的「拼接式」關稅架構，只是會伴隨程序限制、落日風險與高度訴訟可能。從策略面看，決策者應預期關稅在談判中仍具槓桿效應，但法律與政治摩擦將升高，包括要求國會設置更明確制衡機制的壓力，以及對消費者與中小企業成本上升的更高疑慮。
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