The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Annual U.S. Goods Deficit Hits a Record
English Summary
CFR reports that the U.S. goods trade deficit reached a record in 2025, undermining the Trump administration’s claim that emergency tariffs would shrink it and revive domestic manufacturing. Commerce Department data show tariffs redirected sourcing away from China toward countries such as Vietnam and Mexico rather than reducing overall import dependence, while U.S. manufacturing employment fell by about 72,000 jobs after the April 2025 tariff rollout. The brief notes that long-run investment effects from trade deals could still appear, but current evidence points to limited near-term reindustrialization gains. With a Supreme Court ruling pending, the tariffs could be struck down and trigger up to an estimated $175 billion in refunds, highlighting fiscal and strategic risks in a tariff-first policy mix.
中文摘要
CFR 報告指出，美國貨物貿易逆差在 2025 年創下歷史新高，削弱了川普政府關於緊急關稅可縮小逆差並重振國內製造業的主張。美國商務部數據顯示，關稅使採購來源由中國轉向越南、墨西哥等國，而非降低整體進口依賴；同時，在 2025 年 4 月關稅上路後，美國製造業就業減少約 7.2 萬人。簡報指出，貿易協議對投資的長期效果仍可能浮現，但目前證據顯示其在短期內推動再工業化的成效有限。隨著最高法院裁決在即，這些關稅可能被宣告無效，並引發最高估計達 1,750 億美元的退款，凸顯以關稅優先的政策組合在財政與戰略上的風險。
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