The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the DRC serves as a critical warning that the global health security system is fundamentally unprepared for future biological threats. The difficulty in containing this outbreak is compounded by the rising risk of emerging pathogens and the growing potential for AI misuse in bioweapon development. Policy must therefore shift from reactive, crisis-driven funding to sustained, proactive investment in resilient public health infrastructure, particularly in conflict zones. Addressing this requires strengthening global surveillance, ensuring consistent international cooperation, and mitigating the intersection of conflict, climate change, and disease spread.
Time to Stop Forecasting China’s Surplus Away
English Summary
This CFR analysis argues against forecasting China’s external surplus to decline, citing a persistent trend toward a 10% of GDP surplus driven by China’s high savings rate (over 40%). Evidence includes the IMF’s consistent underestimation of the surplus, exacerbated by China’s property bubble burst and a depreciating exchange rate. The article highlights a systemic bias within the IMF towards deemphasizing imbalances, and points to the outlier nature of China’s savings rate compared to economies with similar rates. Consequently, policy should shift away from advocating for a reduction in China’s surplus and instead acknowledge China’s evolving comparative advantage, particularly in industrial policy.
中文摘要
本CFR分析認為不應預測中國的外部貿易盈餘將下降，理由是中國持續呈現10%的國內生產總值（GDP）盈餘的趨勢，這主要源於中國的儲蓄率高達40%以上。 證據包括國際貨幣基金會（IMF）對盈餘持續低估，並受到中國房地產泡沫爆發和匯率貶值的加劇。 該文章強調了IMF內部存在的一種系統性偏見，即對淡化不平衡現象的傾向，並指出中國儲蓄率在類似儲蓄率的經濟體中是極端情況。 因此，政策應從推動減少中國盈餘轉向，並承認中國不斷演變的比較優勢，尤其是在工業政策方面。
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