Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Global cooperation on nuclear disarmament looks even further away
English Summary
The 2026 NPT Review Conference failed to reach consensus, marking the third consecutive unsuccessful outcome and signaling a significant deterioration in global efforts towards nuclear disarmament. Key evidence points to a fractured international environment, exacerbated by disputes over Iran, Ukraine, and North Korea, with the ‘P5’ states actively resisting commitments to disarmament. The expiration of New START without a replacement, coupled with accelerating nuclear build-ups by China and other nations, further weakened the NPT regime and the ‘grand bargain’ of non-proliferation in exchange for disarmament. Ultimately, the conference highlighted a shift towards bilateral leverage among major powers, diminishing the effectiveness of consensus-based multilateral processes.
中文摘要
2026年《不拡散條約》審查會議未能達成共識，標誌著第三次失敗結果，並預示著全球對核裁軍努力的顯著惡化。關鍵證據表明，國際環境呈現分裂，主要受到伊朗、烏克蘭和朝鮮等爭端加劇的影響，而‘五國’國家積極抵制裁軍承諾。新START條約到期且沒有替代方案，同時中國和其他國家的核武器擴張加速，進一步削弱了《不拡散條約》的效力以及非核裁軍換取裁軍的‘大交易’。最終，會議凸顯了主要大國之間雙邊權力提升的趨勢，削弱了以共識為基礎的多邊程序效力。
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