The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
Global cooperation on nuclear disarmament looks even further away
English Summary
The 2026 NPT Review Conference failed to reach consensus, marking the third consecutive unsuccessful outcome and signaling a significant deterioration in global efforts towards nuclear disarmament. Key evidence points to a fractured international environment, exacerbated by disputes over Iran, Ukraine, and North Korea, with the ‘P5’ states actively resisting commitments to disarmament. The expiration of New START without a replacement, coupled with accelerating nuclear build-ups by China and other nations, further weakened the NPT regime and the ‘grand bargain’ of non-proliferation in exchange for disarmament. Ultimately, the conference highlighted a shift towards bilateral leverage among major powers, diminishing the effectiveness of consensus-based multilateral processes.
中文摘要
2026年《不拡散條約》審查會議未能達成共識，標誌著第三次失敗結果，並預示著全球對核裁軍努力的顯著惡化。關鍵證據表明，國際環境呈現分裂，主要受到伊朗、烏克蘭和朝鮮等爭端加劇的影響，而‘五國’國家積極抵制裁軍承諾。新START條約到期且沒有替代方案，同時中國和其他國家的核武器擴張加速，進一步削弱了《不拡散條約》的效力以及非核裁軍換取裁軍的‘大交易’。最終，會議凸顯了主要大國之間雙邊權力提升的趨勢，削弱了以共識為基礎的多邊程序效力。
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