The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Is the Middle East splitting into rival blocs?
English Summary
Chatham House’s analysis suggests the Middle East is fracturing into distinct rival blocs, primarily driven by the escalating Iran-Israel conflict and its subsequent ripple effects. Evidence points to a hardening of alliances – particularly between Iran and countries like Syria and Lebanon – alongside a growing divergence in priorities and security interests among regional states. This fragmentation threatens the existing regional order and necessitates a reassessment of Western engagement, potentially requiring a more targeted diplomatic strategy focused on managing bloc dynamics rather than pursuing broad regional stability. Policymakers should anticipate increased competition and instability across the region.
中文摘要
智庫報告指出，中東正分裂成若干個競爭對立勢力集團，主要受到伊朗與以色列衝突升級及其帶來的連鎖效應推動。證據顯示，聯盟正在加強——尤其是在伊朗與敘利亞和黎巴嫩等國家的合作——同時，各國在優先事項和安全利益上日益分歧。這種分裂威脅到現有的地區秩序，需要重新評估西方參與，可能需要更具針對性的外交戰略，重點管理勢力集團的動態，而不是追求廣泛的地區穩定。政策制定者應預期該地區的競爭和不穩定性將持續增加。
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