The Chatham House report warns of an imminent 'fifth mega-shock' to global food systems, driven by the convergence of geopolitical risks—such as disruptions in critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz—and resulting energy and fertilizer shortages. This vulnerability is compounded by structural weaknesses, notably the extreme concentration of staple crop reserves among a few nations, which heightens the risk of cascading inflation and widespread hunger. The analysis argues that historical shocks have failed to prompt deep systemic reforms, leaving global food security fragile and humanitarian aid strained. Policymakers must therefore urgently prioritize building resilience through supply chain diversification, avoiding nationalistic export restrictions, and coordinating international efforts to stabilize commodity markets.
In the face of growing AI cyber threats, do middle powers have agency?
English Summary
The proliferation of advanced AI cyber models, restricted primarily to US and Chinese partners, is creating a critical global cyber defense gap for middle powers. While alignment with a superpower offers immediate security benefits, the analysis argues this path is insufficient and does not guarantee access during a crisis. Instead, middle powers must prioritize 'coordination,' leveraging a rare window of international awareness to strengthen multi-stakeholder networks. This involves enhancing institutional cooperation, information sharing, and cross-border rapid response capabilities to build collective cyber resilience and avoid geopolitical dependence.
中文摘要
先進AI網路模型（cyber models）的普及，目前主要受限於美中兩大夥伴，這正在為中等權力國家（middle powers）造成關鍵的全球網路防禦缺口。儘管與超級大國結盟能提供即時的安全效益，但本分析認為此途徑不足，且無法在危機時期保證獲得必要的支援。相反地，中等權力國家必須將重點放在「協調」（coordination）上，利用國際意識的稀有窗口期，來強化多方利益相關者網絡。這包括提升制度性合作、資訊共享，以及跨國界快速應變能力，從而建立集體網路韌性，避免過度依賴地緣政治。
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