Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
The Inertia of Russia’s War
English Summary
The Foreign Affairs article argues that Russia’s war in Ukraine has created a ‘inertia’ driven by deeply embedded domestic incentives, making a swift end to the conflict highly unlikely and potentially dangerous for President Putin. Over four years, Russia’s economy and society have reorganized around war, fostering a self-sustaining institutional and economic order dependent on military spending and a thriving shadow economy. Despite wartime economic gains, inequality remains high, and the benefits of increased military spending are unevenly distributed, primarily accruing to a small segment of the population. Any attempt to end the war without addressing these entrenched dynamics risks triggering economic dislocation, social upheaval, and a political reckoning the regime is ill-equipped to handle, effectively trapping Russia in a ‘war trap’.
中文摘要
《外交事務》的文章認為，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭造成了一種由根深蒂固的國內動機所驅動的『慣性』，使得衝突迅速結束的可能性極低，並且對普京總統構成潛在危險。在過去四年中，俄羅斯經濟和社會已經重新組織，圍繞戰爭展開，構建了一個依賴軍事開支和蓬勃發展的影子經濟的自我延展制度體系。儘管在戰爭期間經濟有所增長，但貧富差距仍然很高，增加的軍事開支的利益也並非均勻地分配，主要流向人口中極少數的群體。如果沒有解決這些根深蒂固的動態，試圖結束戰爭的任何舉措都可能引發經濟動蕩、社會動員以及該政權無法應付的政治 reckoning，從而使俄羅斯陷入『戰爭陷阱』。
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Africa's economic landscape is at a critical inflection point, shifting away from traditional foreign aid toward sophisticated commercial investment and private-sector co-investment. This transition is underpinned by major regional initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which grants African nations significant agency and negotiating leverage. Consequently, external powers must pivot their strategy from conditional development assistance to facilitating partnerships in key sectors such as digital infrastructure, energy transition, agribusiness, and critical minerals. Failure to acknowledge Africa's growing market options risks diminishing the influence of any single global partner.
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The analyst views the announced US-Iran deal as a fragile, temporary measure rather than a lasting settlement because it fails to address the core causes of conflict or resolve major outstanding issues like Iran's nuclear program. While reopening the Strait of Hormuz is welcome, true stability requires comprehensive negotiations that move beyond bilateral talks and incorporate regional stakeholders (e.g., China, Arab states). For the deal to endure, diplomatic efforts must adopt a multi-layered approach focused on building confidence among all parties and establishing clear structures for accountability and long-term support.