The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Pharma Choke Point: How to Reduce U.S. Dependence on China
English Summary
The CFR report, "The Pharma Choke Point," argues that the U.S. has developed a dangerously structural dependence on China for essential medicines, extending beyond generic drugs to biologics and biotechnology R&D, driven by decades of Chinese state investment. This dependence is characterized by China’s dominance in key starting materials (KSMs) and increasingly, in biopharmaceutical manufacturing and DNA synthesis. The report identifies three archetypes of this dependence, highlighting the risks of deliberate supply withholding as a tool of coercion. To mitigate this, the analysis recommends establishing strategic reserves, building allied partnerships, and implementing long-term interventions to bolster domestic and allied production of critical pharmaceutical inputs and incentivize innovation. Ultimately, the report calls for a comprehensive strategy to reduce U.S. vulnerability to Chinese pharmaceutical dominance.
中文摘要
《CFR報告：《製藥瓶頸》》指出，美國已發展出對中國在關鍵藥品供應上的嚴重結構性依賴，這種依賴已擴展到通用藥品，並延伸至生物製藥和生物技術研發，主要受到中國國家投資數十年的推動。這種依賴體現為中國在關鍵起始原料（KSM）以及日益增多的生物製藥製造和DNA合成領域的支配地位。報告識別出這三種依賴模式，並強調了蓄意供應中斷作為施壓手段的風險。為應對這一情況，分析建議建立戰略儲備、發展盟友合作關係，並實施長期干預措施，以增強國內和盟友對關鍵藥品投入的生產能力，並鼓勵創新。最終，報告呼籲制定全面的戰略，以降低美國對中國製藥主導地位的脆弱性。
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