While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
How Migration Helps Authoritarians
English Summary
This Foreign Affairs article argues that migration, particularly of skilled workers, actively benefits authoritarian regimes by reducing domestic dissent and bolstering state capacity. The analysis, based on two decades of data from 149 countries, reveals that emigration of educated individuals weakens host countries’ economies and reduces their ability to challenge the ruling power. This ‘brain drain’ allows authoritarian governments to maintain control by minimizing internal opposition and attracting foreign investment. Consequently, policymakers should recognize migration as a tool utilized by authoritarian states and consider strategies to mitigate its impact, potentially through targeted development aid and support for civil society in sending nations.
中文摘要
這篇《外交事務》的文章論述，移民，尤其是熟練勞工的移民，實際上能通過減少國內異議並增強國家實力，為專制政權帶來積極效益。基於來自149個國家二十年的數據分析顯示，受過高等教育的人口流出會削弱接收國的經濟，並降低其挑戰統治勢力的能力。這種‘人才流失’使專制政府能夠通過最小化內部反對勢力並吸引外國投資來維持控制。因此，政策制定者應認識到移民是專制國家所使用的工具，並考慮通過有針對性的發展援助和支持發源國的公民社會來減輕其影響。
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