The Chatham House report warns of an imminent 'fifth mega-shock' to global food systems, driven by the convergence of geopolitical risks—such as disruptions in critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz—and resulting energy and fertilizer shortages. This vulnerability is compounded by structural weaknesses, notably the extreme concentration of staple crop reserves among a few nations, which heightens the risk of cascading inflation and widespread hunger. The analysis argues that historical shocks have failed to prompt deep systemic reforms, leaving global food security fragile and humanitarian aid strained. Policymakers must therefore urgently prioritize building resilience through supply chain diversification, avoiding nationalistic export restrictions, and coordinating international efforts to stabilize commodity markets.
Saving global economic governance from the ‘Trump shock’
English Summary
The report argues that the global economic order faces significant disruption from both the unpredictable policies of the US (the 'Trump shock') and China's resistance to international economic norms. To safeguard principles of openness and mutual benefit, the authors advocate for establishing a permanent 'third pole' alliance of market-oriented economies. This new bloc would be designed to preserve core economic rules by excluding both the US and China. Key members should include the EU and the CPTPP nations, supplemented by other major economies like Brazil and South Korea to create a large, effective, and rules-based economic space.
中文摘要
該報告主張，全球經濟秩序正遭受來自美國不可預測政策（即「川普衝擊」）和中國對國際經濟規範的抵制所帶來的重大動盪。為保護開放和互惠互利的原則，作者們倡議建立一個永久性的「第三極」聯盟，該聯盟由市場導向型經濟體組成。這個新經濟集團旨在排除美國和中國，從而維護核心經濟規則。其關鍵成員應包括歐盟（EU）和CPTPP成員國，並輔以巴西、韓國等其他主要經濟體，以打造一個規模龐大、高效且基於規則的經濟空間。
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